On 23 April 2026, researchers from the CircEUlar project participated in the online closed-door workshop “The long-term global implications of data centres for climate action”, organised by Bruegel in collaboration with T6 Ecosystems.
The workshop brought together experts from academia, policymaking, industry and civil society to examine how the rapid expansion of data centres, driven largely by the growth of Artificial Intelligence (AI), is reshaping global energy demand and influencing progress towards climate targets.
Drawing on insights from the EU Horizon projects CircEUlar and PRISMA, discussions focused on two key themes:
- Long-term global and European projections of data centre energy demand
- The implications of ICT sector growth for climate mitigation and low-carbon transitions
Research Contributions of the Projects
Representing CircEUlar, Yee Van Fan and Charlie Wilson presented findings on long-term global and EU projections of data centre energy demand. Their contribution explored how different climate ambition pathways could shape future electricity demand from data centres, highlighting the substantial uncertainties associated with rapid AI deployment and evolving digital infrastructure requirements.
The session was followed by a presentation from Volker Krey on the impact of long-term data centre demand on global and European low-carbon transitions.
Key Discussion Themes
The workshop generated an active exchange between researchers, industry representatives and officials from the European Commission’s Directorate-General departments.
Evolving policy and regulatory landscape
Participants emphasised the importance and difficulty of maintaining up-to-date representations of climate and ICT policies within long-term modelling frameworks. Discussions highlighted the emerging relevance of the proposed EU Cloud and AI Development Act, which aims to significantly expand Europe’s AI data centre capacity and support the development of AI “Gigafactories” over the coming years.
Experts noted that these policy developments could make higher-end projections of future data centre electricity demand increasingly plausible, particularly in the near- to medium-term.
The discussion also underlined how EU environmental criteria linked to the Energy Efficiency Directive are beginning to influence where data centres connect to the grid, potentially encouraging a more geographically distributed deployment across Europe.
Strategic data centre siting and waste heat recovery
Another important topic concerned the future location of data centres. Participants agreed that the historical clustering of data centres in a few regions is unlikely to continue at the pace required by projected AI growth.
Instead, strategic co-location with renewable energy generation is expected to become increasingly important. Participants also discussed the growing role of waste heat recovery from data centres, particularly its potential contribution to district heating systems and industrial heat demand.
However, technical challenges remain. Current data centre waste heat temperatures are often lower than those required by existing district heating networks, meaning that either heating infrastructure or heat recovery technologies will need further adaptation.
Flexibility and energy system integration
The workshop explored how data centres could contribute to electricity system flexibility. Recent modelling studies suggest that even limited operational flexibility could significantly reduce reserve capacity requirements in power systems.
At the same time, industry representatives highlighted practical constraints, noting that customer-driven AI and cloud applications often leave limited room for shifting workloads across time or locations. Land availability was also identified as a barrier for large-scale battery storage deployment at many European data centre sites.
Long-term efficiency and sustainability perspectives
Participants stressed the growing importance of lifecycle analysis for data centres, including material demand and Scope 3 emissions.
Discussions also pointed to the increasing role of energy costs in overall data centre economics. This may create strong incentives for continued improvements in computing efficiency and AI model optimisation over time, potentially moderating the highest long-term demand growth trajectories.
Supporting evidence-based climate and digital policy
The workshop highlighted the growing need for integrated approaches linking digitalisation, energy systems and climate policy. By contributing long-term modelling insights on data centre energy demand and sustainability implications, CircEUlar continues to support evidence-based policymaking for Europe’s climate-neutral transition.