Reflections on how circular economy modelling research can better inform policy for the transition to net-zero.
On 28 May 2026, CircEUlar, CIRCOMOD and CO2NSTRUCT brought together more than 160 participants (90 online, 72 in person) from policymaking, research, industry and civil society for their joint final event, Modelling to Policy: Circular Economy Pathways Towards Net-Zero.
Across the afternoon, participants repeatedly highlighted the need for a broader understanding of circular economy pathways. While policy discussions can sometimes focus on material recovery and recycling, the modelling evidence presented pointed to a much wider set of interventions, including sufficiency measures, service-focused solutions, lifetime extension, digitalisation and behavioural change. Circular economy pathways can help Europe move further and faster towards net-zero.
The discussions unearthed more questions and pointed to the need for better alignment between modelling and policy, more transparent assumptions, stronger evidence on behavioural and macroeconomic effects, and practical attention to skills, incentives, governance and policy cycle sequencing. Participants also reflected on the importance of broadening the policy conversation around circularity. While circular economy discussions often focus on recycling and waste management, the evidence presented throughout the event highlighted the significant role that sufficiency measures, service-based approaches, lifetime extension, digitalisation and behavioural change can play in reducing material demand and emissions.
The event also demonstrated both the value and the challenges of bringing together different modelling communities. Participants noted that closer coordination and synthesis of results could help strengthen future policy messages, while recognising that each project was designed with distinct objectives, assumptions, methodologies and scales of analysis. The discussions also highlighted the complementary insights generated by different modelling approaches, including macroeconomic models, system-oriented models and material flow models, each of which illuminates different aspects of circular economy transitions and their implications for policy. At the same time, discussions highlighted that data availability remains a major constraint, particularly for material use, activity levels, building stocks and product lifetimes.
In this context, the collaboration between CircEUlar, CIRCOMOD and CO2NSTRUCT was seen as a clear strength. By sharing data and building on common evidence sources – including datasets on the European building stock – the projects were able to improve consistency and strengthen the overall evidence base. Rather than producing a single answer, these complementary perspectives provide a richer and more nuanced foundation for policymakers, helping to illuminate different pathways, trade-offs and implementation challenges.
If you missed the event, or would like to revisit the plenary discussions, the recording is available on our YouTube channel:
